Ukraine is reclaiming territory in the Donbas region, disrupting Russia’s attempt to encircle key Ukrainian strongholds and challenging President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that Moscow’s conquest of the area is inevitable. Ukrainian forces launched Operation Vivaldi, a months-long counteroffensive in the northern Donbas, which has recaptured dozens of square miles and forced Russia to adjust its strategy just as it sought to tighten its grip on remaining Ukrainian-held cities.
Ukrainian Gains Shift Russian Strategy
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Operation Vivaldi disrupted Russian plans to encircle Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt,” which includes the strategically important cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. While the gains remain small compared with the vast territory occupied by Russia, they have interrupted Moscow’s plans for a wider encirclement at a moment when Russia had been portraying further advances as unavoidable.
The Ukrainian advance has slowed Russia’s territorial gains across the country. Finland-based research group Black Bird Group found that September was Russia’s worst month for net territorial gains inside Ukraine since June 2023. However, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed in September that its forces had captured more than 2,000 square miles of territory, a figure even some ultranationalist Russian military bloggers have questioned due to concerns about the offensive’s progress.
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Tactics and Technology Drive Progress
Operation Vivaldi, named after Antonio Vivaldi’s “The Four Seasons,” involved months of battlefield preparation. Ukrainian forces targeted experienced Russian drone operators using signals intelligence to locate their positions, tracking physical cables for fiber-optic drones back to launch sites. Mine warfare also proved critical: Ukrainian forces used robotic systems to clear minefields while deploying drones to scatter mines along Russian supply routes.
Once conditions were set, Ukrainian forces launched coordinated attacks. Ground robots equipped with explosives and machine guns operated behind Russian positions, while armored vehicles advanced to clear defensive positions. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported over 5,000 Russian troops killed and 250 captured during the operation, though these figures lack independent verification.
Ukraine has increasingly relied on drones, robotic ground vehicles and its Delta digital battlefield management system to identify Russian assault groups and coordinate attacks. Russia, in contrast, has leaned heavily on infiltration tactics, sending individual soldiers or small teams to cross miles-wide areas saturated with reconnaissance and attack drones before gathering behind Ukrainian defenses.
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In the south, Russia continues to exert pressure. After breaking through Ukrainian defenses around Pokrovsk in 2025, Russian forces pushed westward, threatening Ukrainian access to supply routes. Moscow captured Pokrovsk early this year and continued advancing north, potentially opening another route toward the fortress cities. This dual-front pressure highlights the challenges Ukraine faces in maintaining supply lines while advancing.
Putin has insisted that full Russian control of the Donbas, whether achieved militarily or through Ukrainian concessions, is a nonnegotiable condition for ending the war. Kyiv has rejected proposals that would require it to surrender territory Russia has failed to capture on the battlefield.